Moderna (MRNA) cut its 2025 forecast by $1 billion Monday, citing weak demand for its newest vaccine as well as slow sales for its COVID-19 vaccine.
The company now expects $1.5 to $2 billion in revenue for 2025. Moderna’s stock slid more than 20% in early trading Monday on the news, at $33.05 per share — a fraction of its COVID highs of nearly $450 per share in 2021.
CEO Stéphane Bancel revealed the forecast at the annual JPMorgan healthcare conference in San Francisco and noted the company will engage in further cost-cutting strategies as it did in 2024.
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“In 2024, we achieved $3 billion to 3.1 billion in product sales, approval of our RSV vaccine and continued to adapt our COVID-19 business for the endemic setting. At the same time, we reduced our cash operating cost by over 25% compared to 2023 and aim to reduce 2025 cash costs by $1 billion with a plan for an additional $500 million cost savings in 2026,” Bancel said in a statement.
The 2024 winter virus season has seen slower respiratory vaccine demand, including for COVID and RSV (respiratory syncytial virus) — which predominantly impact children and elderly adults. Moderna launched its RSV vaccine last year, following earlier approved vaccines from Pfizer (PFE) and GSK (GSK).
A health worker prepares a Moderna COVID-19 vaccine at a vaccination center. (AP Photo/K.M. Chaudary) · ASSOCIATED PRESS
Walgreens’ (WBA) earnings results for fiscal year 2024 last week also signaled a vaccine demand slowdown that could similarly hit other vaccine makers during the upcoming earnings cycle. The retail pharmacy giant reported less than 1 million COVID vaccines sales in fiscal 2024, compared to 4.7 million in the previous year.
Analysts caution there could be more pain ahead for the once-thriving biotech.
Leerink Partners analyst Mani Foroohar noted that in addition to the sales guidance, two other products in the company’s pipeline aren’t looking strong for the near-term.
“We are not surprised to see the stock down over 20% given (1) reduced FY24 sales guidance, (2) lack of clarity on COVID/flu combo, and (3) miss on interim CMV efficacy. All represent headwinds to growth prospects in 2025 – with CMV the largest single line-item at risk among the three – putting risk of future dilutive equity issuance on the table as return to profitability looks increasingly remote, and MRNA’s position in the S&P500 increasingly tenuous,” Foroohar wrote to clients Monday.
Anjalee Khemlani is the senior health reporter at Yahoo Finance, covering all things pharma, insurance, care services, digital health, PBMs, and health policy and politics. That includes GLP-1s, of course. Follow Anjalee on social media platforms X (Twitter), LinkedIn Bluesky @AnjKhem.
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