Obesity levels in the UK may have peaked and could start dropping ‘significantly’ in 2025 due to weight loss jabs, according to one of the biggest online sellers of the medication.
The projected decline comes from data collected by Simple Online Pharmacy, which has access to wholesale figures and has supplied either Mounjaro or Wegovy to 200,000 people, who have collectively lost 600 tonnes of their weight.
The company says the 500,000 people in the UK currently taking weight loss drugs can expect to lose 15% to 20% of their weight over a matter of months. Rebecca Moore, the company’s chief operating officer, told Sky News: “Our projections are that around a million people will reverse their obesity in a year.
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“We should be at the point now, we believe, where we’re starting to see rates decline. We would not be surprised if by the end of this year we’ve seen a really significant decline in obesity.”
However, experts note that the data may not give us a full picture of how glucagon-like peptide-1 (GLP-1) receptor agonists like Mounjaro are impacting obesity levels in the UK.
“It is important to note that the data described (of 500,000 people) is a minority of the total number of those living with obesity in the UK,” explains Dr Martin Whyte, Associate Professor of Metabolic Medicine at the University of Surrey.
“Public health initiatives focused on prevention and lifestyle changes are essential for improving the overall health of the population.
“GLP-1 receptor agonists are an important treatment option for obesity and can provide effective support for individuals struggling with weight management.”
Dr Whyte warns that latest figured showed 28-29% of adults in England are obese, up from 15% in 1993.
Demand for medication is growing by 10% to 40% month-on-month, said Simple Online Pharmacy, with the company supplying 400 patients an hour.
Around 95% of patients using weight loss medication are buying it privately, spending around £150 a month, Sky News claims.
Last year, NHS England proposed a phased launch of the weight loss drug tirzepatide, called Mounjaro, to NICE.
Dr Simon Cork, Senior Lecturer in Physiology, Anglia Ruskin University (ARU), told Science Media Centre: “The planned roll out of tirzepatide marks a key milestone in the future of obesity treatment.
“Like semaglutide (Ozempic, Wegovy), tirzepatide has been shown to be highly effective in clinical trials. The detail of what this roll out will look like is key to how effective this drug will be in a real-world setting.”
What are the risks of weight loss drugs?
A UK death linked to tirzepatide in November 2024 sparked concerns about the safety of using weight loss jabs.
Current data shows ‘acceptable safety’ and a ‘range of benefits’ to using the drugs, according to Prof Naveed Sattar, Professor of Cardiometabolic Medicine/Honorary Consultant, University of Glasgow.
“To date, data from around 10,000 people treated with tirzepatide in various trials in people living with diabetes or with obesity and risk factors, do not suggest a higher risk of pancreatitis.
“Rather the data seem to show acceptable safety thus far, and a range of benefits including sizeable average weight loss (near 20%), strong diabetes prevention, and considerable benefits in people living with sleep apnoea and heart failure,” Prof Sattar told Science Media Centre.
There are ongoing randomised trials of tirzepatide with nearly 30,000 participants, which will investigate the effects of the drug on heart attacks, stroke, and kidney health, as well as mortality, says Prof Sattar.