(Bloomberg) — The latest US sanctions have the potential to significantly disrupt Russia’s energy exports as they blacklist a tanker fleet that moved more than a fifth of the nation’s seaborne oil flows, the International Energy Agency said.
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The 160 tankers sanctioned last week shipped over 1.6 million barrels a day of Russian oil in 2024, around 22% of the country’s seaborne exports, the Paris-based agency said in its monthly report on Wednesday. For now, however, the IEA kept its outlook for the nation’s oil supplies and will update it “as the situation evolves.”
Previous rounds of sanctions on the shadow fleet that Russia has been using to deliver its barrels overseas have been “highly effective, reducing the activity of designated tankers by 90%,” the IEA said.
The US imposed its most aggressive sanctions on Russia’s oil industry last Friday — just days before President Joe Biden leaves the White House to be replaced by Donald Trump — in a bid to boost Ukraine’s leverage in any future peace negotiations with Moscow.
Apart from blacklisting a significant portion of the shadow fleet, the US sanctioned major producers Gazprom Neft PJSC and Surgutneftegas PJSC, several traders of Russian barrels and top providers of marine insurance. The package also banned US oil-service providers from operating in Russia, aiming to reduce the Kremlin’s future ability to pump crude oil.
Russia will look for ways to continue its global oil supplies and minimize effects of the new sanctions package, Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said on Monday, according to state-news agency Tass. “If something is blocked, alternative options appear elsewhere,” he said.
While the new US sanctions are significant, their full impact on Russia’s ability to pump and ship oil is still unclear, the IEA said.
The Paris-based agency for now forecasts Russia’s crude-only output for this year at 9.4 million barrels a day, compared with 9.3 million last year. In December, the nation pumped 9.28 million barrels a day, exceeding its target under the OPEC+ deal by 300,000 barrels a day, according to the IEA estimates.
–With assistance from Julian Lee.
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