A white Christmas is looking like not much more than a song title this year when it comes to the UK weather forecast.
Instead, the Met Office has forecast a “grey Christmas”, rather than a white one, with some sunny spells and “extremely mild” temperatures.
However, the UK is experiencing a “remarkably mild” Christmas Eve, with it set to be the warmest day of the week.
Wales will experience highs of up to 15C, slightly lower than the warmest Christmas on record, with the barometer reaching 15.6C back in 1931.
Temperatures on Christmas Day are forecast to be a little cooler than Tuesday, with highs of 13C in Plymouth and strong winds of up to 50mph forecast in the north and north west of Scotland.
While most people in the country shouldn’t get their hopes up about waking up on 25 December to an idyllic winter wonderland scene, the update will come as some relief to those who caught the brunt of last weekend’s harsher weather.
A “perfect storm” of adverse weather conditions and road congestion led to widespread disruption as people hit the road for their Christmas getaways, on what was predicted to be the busiest festive season rush on record.
The Met Office issued yellow weather warnings covering Scotland, Wales, Northern Ireland and a large part of England, which remained in place until 9pm on Sunday, prompting a number of flight cancellations.
A winter storm sweeps across Aberystwyth in Wales on Sunday. (Alamy)
Belfast City Airport was forced to close its runway on Sunday after a plane’s nose wheel collapsed as it made a “hard landing” on Sunday. There were four crew members on board and no passengers. Early on Monday, the airport confirmed the runway “has reopened and is operating as normal”.
Heathrow Airport confirmed around 100 flights had been cancelled on Sunday “due to strong winds and airspace restrictions”, while Several Loganair flights from Glasgow Airport to the Hebridean islands, and 18 CalMac ferry routes were also cancelled.
All ferry services between Dublin and Holyhead are currently cancelled, upending travel plans for thousands in the festive season, due to the damage caused by Storm Darragh to Holyhead port, which is not expected to reopen until 15 January at the earliest.
The strongest wind speed during the weekend was recorded at 82mph in Kirkwall on Orkney and the South Uist Range, while Killylane in Co Antrim, Northern Ireland, experienced the lowest temperature, with the mercury falling to -0.4C on Sunday.
The UK has already seen snow this autumn. (PA)
Looking at the festive week ahead, Met Office meteorologist Dan Stroud said: “We’re expecting to see some sunny spells further east and a lot of cloud from the west.”
What is the forecast for Christmas Day?
Giving their verdict on the possibility of snow on Christmas Day, the Met Office’s Dan Harris said: “Christmas Day itself is likely to be settled, often cloudy, and dry with light winds for the majority. Once again, the far north may be windier, with a small chance of further rain across northwest Scotland.
“Temperatures are expected to be widely mild, so if you are hoping for a blanket of snow across the country on Christmas Day, I’m sorry to say you will be disappointed.”
While it might not be “a crisp winter’s day” that “many people appreciate”, Met Office meteorologist Aidan McGivern said the 25th will be “dry and settled”.
“It’s patchy drizzle over hills and coasts of the West, but mostly dry elsewhere, and with lighter winds in the south and relatively mild winds, it’s not going to be a bad afternoon for getting out for a walk,” he added.
Heavy white Christmases are unlikely. (PA)
What about New Year?
The Met Office’s long-range forecast for 27 December to 5 January refers to mild and cloudy conditions for most, with some drizzle in places during the start of this period.
“Around the turn of the year, it looks more probable that colder, more showery conditions will likely make at least some ingress into northern and perhaps central areas, bringing a risk of some impacts from ice, sleet and snow,” it says.
“Widely mild at first, perhaps exceptionally so in some places, but temperatures probably return to nearer normal by early January. Throughout, any clearer spells overnight may lead to localised frost and fog.”
Why can’t the forecast be more accurate?
Predicting the weather can be a notoriously tricky affair – in fact, the Met Office say the “chaotic nature of the atmosphere” stops them committing to accurate forecasts more than five days in the future.
The forecaster relies on more generalised predictions covering the whole country in the longer term as “small events currently over the Atlantic can have potentially significant impacts on our weather in the UK in several days’ time”. They say this leads to a situation where they can get a “general feel” of the weather but not issue solid predictions due to the changing nature of the atmosphere.
Met Office long-range forecasts are updated daily and give a broader indication of how the weather might change or differ from what is normal at the time of year across the whole of the UK.
The last heavy white Christmas was 2010. (PA)
A Met Office blog on the issue adds: “Forecasting impactful snow is famously tricky in the UK. There are a number of factors that our expert meteorologists look for and numerous competing elements that all have to be exact for snow to actually fall.
“Sometimes, just a fraction of a degree in temperature can make the difference between the chance to build a beautifully formed snowman, and the joys of a sleety slushy day. That’s why forecasting snow weeks in advance is extremely tricky.
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